The text below is taken from http://www.brighton-webs.co.uk/distributions/poisson_football.asp .
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson can be used to model soccer matches. The graph below shows the the distribution of goals scored by a team playing at home over a season in a league competition. Their average was 1.00 goals/match.
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. The Poisson distribution can also be used for [...]
Most football match prediction use a points rating scheme. The number of points which a team is awarded is dependent upon the outcome of previous matches involving that team. More points are awarded for previous match victories than for draws or losses. For example win 4 points, draw 1 and lose 0 points. Sometimes points [...]
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